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Sunday May 21, 2017
What intelligence issues should we expect to emerge by 2027 with the melting of Arctic ice and the exploitation of its resources?
This workshop introduces participants to the concept of Strategic Foresight Analysis, a process that helps analysts anticipate the many ways the future may evolve, avoid surprise, and uncover unknown unknowns. The instructors define and discuss the purpose of foresight analysis and review several Foresight Structured Analytic techniques. The workshop focuses on the Multiple Scenarios Generation technique for envisioning multiple futures by identifying the key drivers of a particular issue, activity, or behavior. The instructors define and discuss the purpose of three techniques—Key Assumptions Check, Structured Brainstorming, and Multiple Scenarios Generation—as well as the cognitive biases and analytic traps they are designed to mitigate. Participants practice applying the techniques in an exercise designed to highlight their purpose and process.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
How can I conduct more rigorous analysis using Multiple Hypothesis Generation and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses?
Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques help analysts broaden their thinking about what is going on, identify dynamics at play, and question the “conventional wisdom.” This workshop exposes participants to two key techniques: Multiple Hypothesis Generation (MHG) and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The instructors discuss the purpose of MHG and ACH as well as the cognitive biases and analytic traps they help to address. Participants then use an instructor-furnished case study to perform MHG, a technique for developing a range of possible explanations for a particular issue, activity, or behavior. Following the MHG process, participants use ACH to evaluate the consistency of evidence against this range of possible explanations until only one or two most likely explanations remain.