E-PUB: Uncharted Territory: Conflict, Competition, or Collaboration in the Arctic?
This publication includes a case study narrative, a set of questions to consider when analyzing the case, and a case solution.
Learn how to anticipate the unanticipated by using Foresight techniques to gain insight into the Arctic’s uncertain future.
Rising temperatures and reduced sea ice are creating an uncertain future for the Arctic, an area almost one and a half times the size of the United States. Climate shifts are spurring changes in the demand for natural resources, transportation routes, economic development, and demographics. Russia has warned that countries could be at war over Arctic resources within a decade. The dramatic change coming to the Arctic also offers opportunities to develop mutually beneficial, collaborative relationships to manage emerging challenges. This case study shows how Foresight Techniques can be used to identify key drivers, construct alternative stories of how the Arctic may evolve, and generate indicators to signal which future is starting to emerge.
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